Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.493250 2.654839 2.826857 3.024522 3.246540 3.489588 3.777685
2025-03-16 2.255512 2.474286 2.719519 3.017936 3.375725 3.796938 4.339837
2025-03-23 2.124090 2.379475 2.676547 3.053835 3.529791 4.124513 4.949007
2025-03-30 1.988765 2.260691 2.585395 3.010805 3.568395 4.298372 5.372942
2025-04-06 1.878543 2.160346 2.503991 2.965854 3.591040 4.443368 5.768252
2025-04-13 1.771482 2.055162 2.406671 2.888528 3.557604 4.500301 6.034485
2025-04-20 1.723288 2.019737 2.394021 2.919318 3.671659 4.776197 6.684216
2025-04-27 1.690688 2.001240 2.400589 2.974366 3.822502 5.122704 7.521007
2025-05-04 1.659708 1.982314 2.404194 3.023731 3.967469 5.477009 8.456326
2025-05-11 1.605825 1.929931 2.358765 2.998306 3.993833 5.636997 9.053880
2025-05-18 1.558250 1.883576 2.318739 2.977214 4.023636 5.804599 9.709565
2025-05-25 1.512997 1.838253 2.277570 2.951089 4.041844 5.952181 10.361561
2025-06-01 1.470759 1.796067 2.239748 2.929016 4.067113 6.120990 11.134016
2025-06-08 1.436823 1.763964 2.214709 2.924812 4.121923 6.354446 12.163247
2025-06-15 1.416535 1.749855 2.214626 2.959061 4.245859 6.745137 13.813243
2025-06-22 1.376493 1.706357 2.169438 2.918257 4.231625 6.844978 14.631067
2025-06-29 1.338412 1.664358 2.124729 2.875591 4.210162 6.925960 15.433302
2025-07-06 1.294156 1.612243 2.063103 2.802142 4.125986 6.856133 15.674929
2025-07-13 1.279542 1.602101 2.063822 2.831396 4.237183 7.250456 17.930739
2025-07-20 1.271562 1.601097 2.078039 2.883673 4.397370 7.794223 21.355442
2025-07-27 1.262500 1.598083 2.088851 2.930524 4.551589 8.360212 25.680380
2025-08-03 1.236977 1.570051 2.059786 2.906397 4.558557 8.538449 28.074933
2025-08-10 1.213633 1.544595 2.033844 2.886376 4.572339 8.739356 30.970322